You may be tired of hearing about the 2020 elections in the United States. Here I offer you an approximation to understand why President Trump lost his re-election. Several elements should have come together, and here they are put in context to understand it, and links are included to better appreciate them.
By: ottogutierrez@ymail.com
Throughout history, presidential campaigns in the United States have determined trends in strategy, communication, and politicians’ performance. Each election is like the launch of new models in these areas of political work. In each election, there are great successes or errors to dictate lecture on how politics is done at each time. From what happens in the United States, the political world takes models to be repeated or implemented in elections in other countries and hence the attention that this choice has in the world of communicators and strategists. In my view, there are three great lessons it leaves. The role of the traditional press in favor of a candidate, the reckless play of the voters’ emotions, and the incorporation of character defects into political discourse, contravening the entire theory of centuries. These last two will be eradicated even if there are those who want to use them justifying the unjustifiable.
To understand why Trump lost in 2020, we must first review how he won in 2016. That year the Republican candidate obtained the nomination in a clear and complex way. He said what he thought on each issue, which was also what his voters wanted to hear. He emerged as a citizen who, being anti-political, could tell the truth without political or economic commitments. Thus he conquered millions who saw him as a fresh leader with whom they identified even though the polls did not reflect it. https://bit.ly/35XgKRR.
Once the presidential campaign began, reality showed that no matter how much acceptance it would not be enough to defeat Hilary Clinton. Many strategists walked past Trump and were fired with just days of work. Until one arrived who told him the truth with a solution included. That advisor was clear. There is only a chance of victory if you dissuade Clinton voters from voting. To do this, he proposed a one-to-one segmentation strategy through social networks using all the tools that Silicon Valley had created. A brilliant tactical action that found how to use each network and how to get to manipulate opinion. This was done and three fronts were attacked: women, Afro-Americans, and the liberals or followers of the candidate Sanders. https://bit.ly/35UIl68. I focus on women. A clear and forceful message was offered to them. For the young women, they pitched ”an infidelity is not forgiven” and for the older ones, “an infidelity is not forgotten” was dynamite for that voters and achieved their abstention from the vote. This, together with the other two segments attacked, contributed to the victory. https://bit.ly/3nNIxtZ , https://bit.ly/35Xl7Mx.
Read here: ONE – TO – COMMUNICATION AND MARKETING ARE KEY IN THESE TIMES. https://bit.ly/2UY5Nt2
The second element was that the country saw a challenging candidate with controlled humility. His campaign was based on small meetings, with a lot of digital promotion and billions of dollars of advertising product purchases and donations. He maintained many of his impulses to look acceptable although he punished his opponent with political arguments. There are already exceeded limits but being sporadic it was not objectionable. However, he garnered disapproval and never won a public poll. His campaign cost $ 396 million compared to Clinton’s $ 768 million. Obtaining each electoral vote cost Trump 1.3 million while Clinton 3.3 million. The ratio of 2 to 1. https://wapo.st/3lZOJym.
That behavior, his speech, his past, his party, and his proposals earned him the visceral rejection of the great and traditional media of the country better known as the liberal media. Those printed and broadcast the first pages and broadcasts dedicated to discrediting it, misrepresenting it, and wanting to clarify alleged lies. Trump was the winning candidate with the highest number of posts on a daily and systematic basis. This generated a deep polarization between politics and the media, hurt the ego of the press, which was powerless to remove or install the president thanks to its support or rejection as in the past, and laid the foundations for declared hostility for the next four years of government. There was talk of the Russian influence that ended without proof is a myth.
President Trump governed by fulfilling what he proposed. The wall and migrants, climate change, the management of the economy, international relations, and domestic politics were fields where he did what he said. The coherence that only their voters valued and their opponents condemned. The way in which he had manipulated the women was revealed and that wound worsened. Silicon Valley was held responsible for helping him only thinking about the economic interest of the advertising no matter what they offered to the public. The liberal press wounded in its ego understood that the new media were displacing them and they were not going to leave it. So the 2020 election came as the stage in which each of these actors could have revenge and the objective was to prevent re-election. American women vowed revenge and became the voters most determined to exercise the power of the vote. https://nbcnews.to/39gtOn8. Silicon Valley took action and not only prevented actions like the one in 2016 from being repeated but even censored accounts and issues to show that it was in control https://bit.ly/2HwSsVo. In addition, it promoted a great pro-vote campaign using all its power. https://yhoo.it/3pRNZhf. The liberal press decided to attack again but this time united, in concert by attacking Trump mercilessly and protecting even the cover-up of the shortcomings of the opponent Biden. The contradictions were hidden in his speech, https://bit.ly/35WzHUu , https://bit.ly/35X8ukH. Press conferences with a teleprompter and therefore agreed questions were allowed https://bit.ly/2UV61RC , https://bit.ly/35TVexb , https://bit.ly/35Zv3p3. Interventions were full of mistakes https://bit.ly/2J4xHRn. He even confused his wife with his sister on the stage https://bit.ly/3nNLo6b. Perhaps the biggest demonstration of the cover-up occurred when Biden’s son’s business partner denounced and presented evidence of how the Democratic candidate had come to receive improper commission monies due to illegal influences. https://bit.ly/338iLIQ , https://yhoo.it/398AIe9 of all this little was said or hidden. Whenever Biden’s permanent mistakes and contractions made him erratic and weak, they were there to cover it up and contain his wear and tear.
With this environment, hemmed in and threatened even with fraud schemes with the vote by mail, President Trump did not have the ability to organize a strategy to match. He thought that the economy would prevail against Covid and he was wrong. Survival was imposed on the comfort of having economic stability. Very wrong, he has already decided to add his personal touch of arrogance, aggression, self-sufficiency, self-centeredness, indecision, disrespect, narcissism, pride, resentment, stubbornness, among others to ingratiate himself with his constituents. He did it with a few but scared off most even many of his supporters. It was very clumsy in a pandemic to believe that economy was worth more than life.
The highest vote speaks for itself. Biden 79 million against Trump’s 73. The struggle of egos with the liberal press achieved its objective and the union was demonstrated days after the election when the television networks cut off Trump’s intervention as an act of vindication of his role. Just as Trump had made them look weak four years earlier, now it was those media on behalf of the alliance that signed their artwork as authors. The women collected their debt. 21% more than in 2016 voted in 2020 for the Democratic candidate or against Trump, while the lowest number of voters for Trump corresponded to women. Solidarity with women-led the Democratic party to increase the vote among men, which grew by 31% compared to the previous election.
The United States is polarized. In the post-election, there are already several errors of interpretation of what happened that will also mark the communication and strategy activity in the world. One, it is wrong to believe that 79 million votes were in favor and due to Biden when they have a lot against Trump. The candidate president woke up 23.3 million new voters 13, 2 against, and only 10.1 in favor. Two. the media were wrong and I believe that the consequences will be seen with the worsening of the credibility and therefore economic crisis. Three, social media won again, although with the stain of censorship of topics and actors, which will chart a new path for those communication channels.
In 2020 we saw the worst candidate face the worst of the opponents. No matter what your favorite was, this applies the same. Very clear lessons remain. Communicating with emotion to voters is necessary, but communicating abusing the emotion of voters is suicidal. Communicating with principles and virtues tend to prevail because, unlike reggaeton, political audiences appreciate and need good speeches and narratives. There is still, in the universe of politicians, a young or digital audience that is ignored and that has a contagious power that you have to know how to reach. The reptilian code and its sensitivity prevail over the transcendence of reason. In everything that has happened, there is much to apply, the lesson has been abundant and is not over yet. To learn more about communication and strategy write to me at ottogutierrez@ymail.com , tell me about your need or project, and I will surely be able to help you.
Otto Gutierrez 